Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Union Budget 2011 - A Glance

Union Budget 2011-12
‘Fiscal consolidation poses major challenge’

 The Union Budget 2011-12 can be described as a mildly positive one at best, given the constraints on the fiscal front. The focus was, as expected, largely on containing inflation, fiscal consolidation and inclusive growth. Populist measures like raising personal income tax slabs and interest subsidy to farmers were announced, keeping in mind the upcoming state elections. Agricultural and infrastructure bottlenecks were also addressed. The stock market, which was extremely pessimistic in the run up to the budget, reacted positively as fears of excise and service duty hikes and a bigger government borrowing figure were allayed. Allowing foreign investors to directly invest in equity mutual fund schemes is a big positive from the stock market perspective. The MAT impact on cash flow and lack of action in improving the slowing FDI were let downs in this budget. With subsidies and expenditure appearing understated, meeting the fiscal deficit target of 4.6% for FY12 will be a major challenge.

Direct tax: Sentimentally positive for individuals; MAT increased, surcharge reduced. With an eye on upcoming elections in key states, personal income tax slabs were raised to Rs180,000 from Rs160,000, as rightly predicted in our preview note. This, however is only a feel good element and does not add materially to disposable income of the middle class. We also expected corporate tax rates, surcharge and MAT to remain unchanged. While corporate tax rates were untouched, surcharge was reduced to 5% from 7.5% and MAT was increased to 18.5% from 18%. Additionally, SEZ developers and units in SEZs, which were earlier exempt from tax, will now be required to pay MAT. However, this would impact only the cash flows.

Indirect tax: No change in excise duty rate as per expectations; service tax net widened. Overthrowing fears of a hike in excise duty, the finance minister retained the same at 10%. This was one of the key positives that got the equity market excited. We expected the budget to maintain status quo on excise duties based on our belief that any hike would risk slowing the economy at a time when interest rates were already hardening. Surprisingly, hike in excise on tobacco did not come through, which is a huge positive for ITC. The servic tax net was widened to bring in more services under its purview but the rate was not increased along expected lines. However, we did expect certain cuts on import duties to lower price levels, which did not come through. Instead, the finance minister tackled it differently by hiking export duties on iron ore to 20% from 5% (Sesa Goa is the biggest loser on account of this change). Predictably, the budget was not able to give a detailed roadmap on GST, given the opposition from states.

Agricultural focus to tackle food inflation; infrastructure financing partly addressed. Coming to grips with food inflation has been on the top agenda of the government. Besides increasing credit growth to agriculture by 27% in 2011-12 and providing interest subvention for farmers from 2% to 3%, cold storage companies are given infra status and a plan has been put in place to create 4MT of food storage capacity by March 2012. We included this as a key requirement from the budget to reduce wastage and help ease food prices.

On the infrastructure front, the critical issue of dearth of long-term funding was addressed to a credible extent through various measures. Key amongst them being increase in FII limit by a significant US$20bn for investment in corporate bonds issued by infra companies, allowing some infrastructure development institutions to issue tax-free long term bonds and extension of the additional deduction of Rs20,000 u/s sec 80CCF by one more year.

Social sector spending on the rise: Social sector spending was bound to increase as part of the government’s inclusive growth agenda. The finance minister increased allocation in many areas of health, education, rural broadband connectivity programme, allocating additional Rs100bn towards rural development and Rs210bn towards rural literacy. The NREGA scheme has been linked to CPI. Here, the government could possibly have done better by addressing leakages in the system rather than increasing the amount. The minister also stated that the Food Security Bill would be introduced in the current year.

Subsidy bill and expenditure side seem understated: The budget estimates for subsidy in 2011-12 stands at Rs1,436bn, which is 12.5% lower than current year’s revised figure. The crude price is expected to remain firm and the budget estimate for fuel subsidy of Rs236bn (38% lower) looks unreal. Similarly, a flat figure for food subsidy and lower projections for fertiliser subsidy look difficult to achieve. Besides, enhanced interest subsidy to farmers will add to this burden. A fall in nonplan expenditure and a mere increase of 3.4% in total expenditure during 2011-12 looks unmanageable.

Mildly positive budget; fiscal deficit target of 4.6% - big challenge

The budget was largely in line with our expectations - mildly positive in the light of constraints faced. The consumption impetus has remained with no hike in excise duties, linking of NREGA to inflation, plan for direct subsidy, interest subvention to farmers and sentiment boosting personal tax exemption. Attempts to curb inflation will also help sustain demand momentum.

When it comes to fiscal deficit, the government faces a heavy challenge in meeting the target of 4.6% for 2011-12. While budget  estimates for direct taxes and indirect taxes largely seem reasonable, the government will face a bigger burden of expenditure and subsidies. This will mean that the non-tax revenue sources will need to be higher than the budgeted figure of Rs1,254bn. Here, the only upside can come from introduction of an amnesty scheme to bring back black money. Upsides to the disinvestment target of Rs400bn are unlikely given the state of equity markets. Non tax revenue of Rs296bn from communication services also appears on the higher side with no 3G auction available this time round. We therefore believe that a 4.9-5% fiscal deficit is more realistic as compared to 4.6% set for FY12. This would also mean that the market borrowings of the government could be higher than the stated figure of Rs3,430bn.

Tags: Union Budget 2011-12, Budget 2011, IIFL view on Budget

Monday, February 21, 2011

Who will win the World Cup?


Someone Asked: Why do Indian people look like they are about to win the world cup?

And my answer was:

It makes more sense for India to win the world cup. Here are the reasons.

Business Wise
* Most of the Indians have been hired by large Multinational corporations as their brand ambassadors, and it will serve their purpose.
* With the IPL to follow you need more people watching cricket in India, you know how big the IPL is, now imagine the fan following / sponsors etc if India wins the cup

Talent Wise
* First exclude the minnows
* Next exclude the semi minnows (England, West Indies and New Zealand)
* Now exclude the Chokers ~ South Africa (they will definitely choke at some point.)
* Now exclude the Aussies ~ You don't have McGrath to bowl, Hayden and Gilly to Bat
* That leaves India, Pakistan and Srilanka.

Oh yeah, you can leave Pakistan out ~ We've already paid them!

That leaves India and Srilanka - India will win because we play the finals in India, and we have better batsmen than Srilanka to post a score or chase a score, Simple isn't it!

Tags: 2011 Cricket World Cup, ICC Cricket World Cup 2011, 2011 World Cup Winners

Friday, February 18, 2011

BSE Day Trading Time Frames

What Time Frame Should You Trade the BSE?

How will you know if the trend is up for all BSE stock traders?

You see it's impossible to determine trend until you know what time frame you are talking about. The trend can be up because someone is trading on a daily time frame yet for another traders the trend can be down been up as he only trades the BSE on an five minute chart.

One of the main reasons I see traders not do as well as they should is that they are trading the wrong time frame for their personality. In the normal course of events someone learning to trade will either educate himself by taking a course or reading relevant books. In order for the person giving the course or writing the book to demonstrate his point he will have to use a particular time frame. This often becomes the student's time frame by default because that is how he learnt.
 
In today's electronic world many new traders start off by studying very small time frames such as 1 minute and 5 minute charts. This often leads them to get frustrated and to become anxious when they trade because it is the wrong time frame for their personality. Let me just add here that there is nothing wrong with trading any particular time frame just be sure you are trading it for the right reasons.
 
So what is the right time frame for you? Well, it all depends on your personality. You have to feel comfortable with the time frame you are trading in. You have to feel at home with that time frame. There is always a degree of pressure when you trade because there is the real potential for loss or gain and that will effect you to some degree. You should however not feel that the reason you are feeling pressure or frustration is because things are happening so fast that you find it difficult to make decisions or so slowly that you get frustrated.
 
When I first started trading I started out trading on 5 minute charts. I traded on that time frame for years. Because it was such a short time frame and II always felt a bit unprepared regardless of how much time I spent preparing for the trading day. I also found that after a few years it was beginning to take its toll on my health as I never seemed to have enough time to do anything but trade. From the 5 minute chart I moved to the 10 minute chart and spent a month trading on that time frame. I then repeated the process with the 30 minute chart, 1 hour chart and 4 hour chart.  I eventually found that trading the 4 hourly charts made a lot more sense to me. As the time frame was much longer and trading signals fewer I found I had a lot more time to analyze the market and I never felt rushed.
 
On the other side of the coin I have a dear friend who trades the FTSE who just could not trade in that time frame. It would be to slow for him and he would get to bored waiting for opportunities. He feels at home trading a 1 minute chart and always feels as though he knows what's going on and has enough time to make his decisions based on his trading method. Yet another friend thinks that the 4 hourly chart is far to short a time period for him as he trades only daily, weekly and monthly charts. The point is only you can decide what is the correct time frame for your personality. You will also have to take into consideration the market you are trading and amount you have available to trade. Shorter time frames usually means that you can have better use of margin and stops loss orders can be much tighter. If you think the reason your trading is not going the way that it should but you believe that your method of trading is sound, it may just be that you are trading the wrong time frame and it is effecting you psychologically.
 
To sum up, if you have a solid trading plan and a sound method of trading your chosen market. You should be able to take that approach and apply it to any time frame. The question is if you could make the same amount of money trading any time frame which time frame would you choose. You will of course have to take into consideration that the time frame you choose does generate enough trading opportunities for you to be happy with the results. It is also worth noting that if your trading is going well and you are profitable then don't even think about changing time frames. As the saying goes ''if it ain't broke don't fix it.''
 
When you do eventually find the time frame you are happy with you can then start looking at multiple time frames to help your analysis of the market. We will be discussing multiple time frames in future lessons.
 
tags: BSE Day Trading, Trading Time Frames, BSE stock traders

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Dreamgains.com - Stock Tips Free Trial Review

I was offered a free trial of Stock tips from DreamGains.com. Well, instead of just ignoring them because no one can predict markets correctly and DreamGains are no exception, I wanted to track these tips and see what will actually happen if people trade using these stock tips for intraday.

Below mentioned data is correct / fact and i did not make up anything. There is a legend below for those of you who have difficulty understanding the headers in the table below. I have assumed that you have Rs 10,000/- in your account and have an exposure of 10 times. That is how the number of stocks, profit, loss etc are calculated. Now its upto you to decide if you want to use these tips.

DATE
STOCK-NAME
BUY-SELL
STOPP-LOSS
TARGET1
TARGET2
LOW-HIGH
PROFIT-LOSS
14-Feb-11
EVERONN
551.00
545.00
557.00
563.00
563.00
Rs. 2,178
14-Feb-11
GITANJALI GEMS
230.50
227.50
233.50
236.50
236.50
Rs. 2,603
14-Feb-11
WELSPUN CORP
180.5
178.50
182.50
184.50
184.50
Rs. 2,216
14-Feb-11
JAIN IRRIGATION
210.50
207.50
213.00
215.50
207.50
-Rs. 1,425
15-Feb-11
KARNATAKA BANK
128.50
127.00
130.00
131.50
127.00
-Rs. 1,167
15-Feb-11
PATEL ENGINEERING
182.90
184.90
180.90
178.90
184.90
-Rs. 1,093
15-Feb-11
MUNDRA PORT
144.60
143.10
146.10
147.60
146.00
Rs. 968
 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS  
Rs. 4279



DATE WISE PROFIT AND LOSS
14-Feb-11
5572
15-Feb-11
-1293



SUCCESS RATE
14-Feb-11
75.0%
15-Feb-11
33.3%


LEGENDS:DATE: DATE THE STOCK TIP WAS GIVEN
STOCK-NAME: NAME OF THE COMPANY /SCRIP TO PURCHASE
BUY-SELL: CALL GIVEN TO BUY OR SELL ABOVE/BELOW THIS PRICE
LOW-HIGH: WHAT WAS THE TARGET ACHIEVED
(+ / - RUPEES): DIFFERENCE OF RUPEES FROM BUY-SELL PRICE
STOCKS-PUR: NUMBER OF STOCKS TRADED WITH 1 LAKH RUPEES


TAGS: Dreamgains, dreamgains com, dreamgains free trial, dreamgains stock tips

Corporate News Updates 15-Feb

Net profit of Software Technology Group International rose 200.00% to Rs 0.03 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 0.01 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009. Sales declined 19.05% to Rs 1.02 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 1.26 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009.

Net profit of Emami Paper Mills rose 1662.50% to Rs 2.82 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 0.16 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009. Sales rose 8.93% to Rs 102.26 crore in thequarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 93.88 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009.

Net profit of Su-Raj Diamonds & Jewellery rose 113.30% to Rs 29.99 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 14.06 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009. Sales rose 34.19% to Rs 982.24 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 731.99 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009.

State-owned Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) today said it has bagged an $436 million (about Rs 2,000 crore) contract for setting up a gas-based power project in Yemen.

Anil Ambani-led Reliance Infrastructure (R-Infra) today said it would buy back Rs 1,000 crore worth of shares at a price of Rs 725 a piece.

Tata Group firms HV Transmissions and HV Axles today said they plan to merge into single entity -- TML Drivelines -- in order to become a total driveline solutions provider. The boards of HV Transmissions (HVTL) and HV Axles (HVAL) have decided to amalgamate HVTL into HVAL to harness synergies and make the two entities a total driveline solutions provider, backed with appropriate skills and expertise, the two firms said in a joint statement.

Engineering major Larsen & Toubro today said it has received a Rs 1,100 crore order from Gujarat State Electricity Corporation (GSECL) to set up a 375-MW gas-based power plant at Dhuvaran, near Baroda.

Engineering and construction firm Unity Infraprojects has emerged as the lowest bidder for 4 projects of about Rs 300 crore and expects them to be awarded in a month.

Tags: Corporate News, Corporate Updates, BSE/NSE Movers

Technical Analysis 15-Feb-11

Market may open with a flat note and is expected to trade sideways, value buying can emerge by noon.

Sensex (18202)

Sensex has resistance at 18300 and 18434 above further upside. Support at 18156, 18073, 18050 and 17888.

NIFTY (5456)

Resistance at 5505 and 5520. Support at 5421 and 5377.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1) MARUTI (1224.1)
   The stock has resistance at 1230 if moves up then it can test 1248 and more. Support at 1212 and 1198 (Buy at lower)

2) SESAGOA (307.8)
   Support at 302 and 298. Resistance at 310 above 314 and more. (Buy at declines)

3) INFOSYS (3104.55)
   The support is at 3098 and 3075. Resistance at 3115 above it can test 3128, 3145 and more. (Buy at declines)

4) RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (914.8)
   Support at 907 below 900. Resistance at 925 above 938 and more. (Buy with a stoploss)

5) BAJAJ AUTO (1298.5)
   Resistance at 1315 above 1345. Support at 1278 and 1263. (Buy at declines)

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

BUY TCS FUTURES AT 1102 LEVELS

BUY SUNPHARMA FUTURES AT 419 LEVELS

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Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Corporate News Updates 08-Feb

Net profit of Assam Company India rose 474.35% to Rs 10.97 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 1.91 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009. Sales rose 2.59% to Rs 94.94 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 92.54 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009.

Net profit of Sah Petroleums rose 521.74% to Rs 4.29 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 0.69 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009. Sales rose 28.31% to Rs 97.08 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 75.66 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009.

Net profit of Arora Fibres rose 157.69% to Rs 0.67 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 0.26 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009. Sales declined 5.66% to Rs 5.17 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 5.48 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009.

Net profit of Camlin Fine Chemical rose 168.89% to Rs 1.21 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 0.45 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009. Sales rose 27.91% to Rs 42.35 crore in the quarter ended December 2010 as against Rs 33.11 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2009.

Amid concerns of alleged 'surrogate practices' of 'Big Four' accounting firms,regulator ICAI has asked PriceWaterhouseCoopers, KPMG , Ernst & Young and Deloitte to desist from acquiring Indian audit outfits.

State-run power equipment-maker BHEL today said it has signed an agreement with Spain's Abengoa to set up solar power projects in India.

JSW Steel on Monday reported 9% increase in its crude steel production in January to 5.8 lakh tonnes from 5.33 lakh tonnes a year earlier.

Entertainment firm Shree Ashtavinayaka is joining hands with a little-known business group LFS Global for a multi-billion dollar project to build India's largest film city near Mumbai modeled on the lines of Hollywood's Universal Studios.

Founders of Kavveri Telecom Products will launch an open offer to buy back a further 20% in the firm at 116.47 rupees each.

Tags: Corporate News, Corporate Updates, BSE/NSE Movers

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Technical Analysis 08-Feb-11

Market may open with a flat note and is expected to trade sideways with minor positivity in the morning session.

Sensex (18037)
Sensex has resistance at 18168 and 18228. Support at 17919 and 17839.

NIFTY (5396)
Resistance at 5410, 5435 and 5450. Support at 5384, 5379 and 5348 below further selloff.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1) JUBILANT FOOD (515)
The support is at 505 and 500. Resistance at 521 above it can test 540 and 562 (Buy for delivery)

2) LANCO INFRA (46.25)
Support at 45.1 and 43.75. Resistance at 47 above it can test 49 and 51. (Buy for delivery)


3) BHARTI SHIPYARD (158.4)
The support is at 153 and 148. Resistance at 161 above it can test 165 and more. (Buy at lower)


4) SANGAM INDIA (46.75)
Support at 45 below 43. Resistance at 49 above 54. (Buy at lower levels)


5) ITI (37.55)
Resistance at 38.4 above 40.1 and 41.44. Support at 35.9 and 35.35. (Buy at lower for short term)


DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
SELL PUNJLLOYD FUTURES AROUND 89.50 LEVELS
BUY BPCL FUTURES AROUND 590 LEVELS


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Stock Trading lost in stoploss method


The most important, the most difficult, and the first skill that a trader must learn is to cut their losses quickly. It is essential (as we all have read many, many times); we only lose significant money by holding onto losing positions. So why do so many (perhaps all) of us find it so difficult? What is it about cutting a loss that is so hard? The answer, we believe, is in what we say to ourselves about what a loss means.

There is a natural tendency for most people, in any area of life, to not take responsibility for results and behaviors that appear negative. We want to see ourselves in a good light and it is tempting to try to avoid responsibility for acts that we consider bad.

I have noticed for example, that liars (I mean here people who habitually lie) do not see themselves as liars. For every lie that they are conscious of, they have their justifications. In their mind the lie would have been to save someone else's embarrassment or disappointment; something that allows the liar to feel that not only they are not acting deceitfully, but they are actually doing a good and kind act.

I remember once a teacher at my junior school crudely picking some bit of stuck food out of his teeth. After he had finished he justified himself by saying to us (8 year olds) that he only did it because he knew that we had no table manners. We weren't judging him; he was judging himself and using us as his scapegoat.

What we resist persists
We all lie to some degree and I don't have a problem with that; what I do consider important is how we explain the lie to ourselves. When you lie are you honest with yourself about it, or do you make up a story to yourself so you don't feel guilty? It is a difficult question to answer, but one that will say a lot about your trading.

The most important, the most difficult, and the first skill that a trader must learn is to cut their losses quickly. It is essential (as we all have read many, many times); we only lose significant money by holding onto losing positions. So why do so many (perhaps all) of us find it so difficult? What is it about cutting a loss that is so hard? The answer, I believe, is in what we say to ourselves about what a loss means.

It is the meaning we attach to a loss that determines whether we can accept it and let it go; or whether we refuse to accept it and in so doing hold on to it. What we resist persists. If a loss means something bad about you; if it means you're a loser, or a failure or just no good, or doomed to financial subsistence or whatever; then you won't be willing to accept it.

Too Big
Take it to an extreme, if it was a life or death matter, if you were going to be beheaded if you have a losing trade; you would never, ever, accept the loss, you would hold on for ever and as soon as the position was 1 point in profit, you would grab it immediately! Isn't that how many of us trade now?

If so, ask yourself what does a losing trade mean about you?

If a loss means something negative about us we won't want to accept it, this is human nature. We would rather hold on as long as we can and then, when we inevitably have to take the loss because it is now too big; too big to hide, too big to ignore, too big to refuse to accept; we look for our scapegoat.

The 'they' of the market: the controllers, the insiders, the manipulators, or even the market itself; anything but to take the judgement that the loss implies. The objective of our self-deceit is to avoid the judgement that the loss imposes. In the same way that the teacher condemned the school children in order to avoid the judgement about his manners, so do we look to shift the blame to some third party.

Significance of Loss
The problem here lies, not with our self-deceit, but with the meaning that we attach to having a loss. If a loss means something negative, of course we don't want to accept it; but if a loss had no significance to us, accepting it would be easy.

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